Interest in Ultra HD TVs is at a fever pitch as a critical moment is approaching in the market: Ultra HD is transitioning from early adopters to more mainstream consumers. Rapidly falling prices, particularly in China, will fuel adoption, according to DisplaySearch.
"As the makers of Ultra HD TV LCD panels and sets expect strong growth in 2014, the supply chain focus on growing demand is rising dramatically," noted Paul Gagnon, director for global TV research at DisplaySearch. "Panel makers are planning for nearly 27 million Ultra HD TV panels to be produced in 2014, while vendors have somewhat more modest expectations for the end market. There is a significant difference in outlook between China and other regions."
DisplaySearch said Ultra HD TV shipments are expected to total 1.9 million units in 2013, rising to 12.7 million units in 2014. China will have an 87% share of Ultra HD TV units in 2013, dropping only slightly to 78% in 2014. This means that Ultra HD TV shipments within China will lead all other regions combined by a factor of three in 2014. Eventually other regions will catch up, but China will remain the leading region for Ultra HD TV shipments throughout the forecast, enabled by intense competition and very low price points. Ultra HD TV average prices are expected to fall below US$1,000 in China during 2014, while the worldwide average remains over US$1,100 and close to US$2,000 in North America.
Overall TV demand is expected to fall 3% in 2013, after a 6% decline in 2012. Overall demand in many regions meanwhile is still affected by the accelerated demand in 2010 and 2011, which pulled in demand from future years. Total TV shipments should grow about 1% in 2014 to 229 million units, with LCD TV shipments rising to 220 million, or 96% of overall units. Plasma and CRT TV shipments are declining rapidly, ending by 2016. "OLED TV technology is not expected to yield significant growth for two to three more years," Gagnon said. "Ultra HD has therefore become a technology focal point in the interim." | 