Following a dismal third quarter in 2013, the outlook for global TV shipments appears even dimmer in 2013, with shipments now forecast to fall by 5%, marking the second consecutive year of decline, according to IHS.
Global shipments of TVs are set to slide to 226.7 million units in 2013, down from 238.2 million in the previous year. Every type of TV will suffer a decline, including the major categories of LCD, plasma, CRT and rear projection.This follows a 7% decline in 2012, when shipments fell from 255.2 million in 2011.
"A wide range of factors are conspiring to undermine TV shipments in 2013, from economic weakness and market saturation of flat-panel TVs in mature regions, to plunging CRT sales in developing countries," said Jusy Hong, senior analyst for consumer electronics & technology at IHS. "This is all adding up to a second consecutive year of decline for the TV market."
The dominant LCD TV segment will see shipments decline by 1%. The smaller plasma segment will suffer a sharp 27% decline.
The moribund CRT segment will decline by 40%. Meanwhile, the already infinitesimally minute rear-projection TV segment will dwindle to nothing in 2013.
The third quarter's not the charm
Shipments in the third quarter of 2013 declined by 7% compared to the same period in 2012. While shipments rose 12% compared to the second quarter, this came during a time when TV set shipments normally grow as year-end holidays approached.
With shipments also having declined on an on-year basis in the first and second quarters, the third quarter decrease ensured the global TV market would drop again for the full year of 2013, said IHS.
Mature markets slow down
The biggest reason behind the shipment decline in 2013 is the continuing global economic recession and maturity of the TV market in advanced regions.
The western Europe and Japan TV markets have been declining for three consecutive years since 2010. The North America market has been shrinking as well, dating back to 2011.
Emerging markets are underwater
Meanwhile, the TV markets in Asia-Pacific, eastern Europe, and the Middle East and Africa, which are regarded as emerging regions, have also been contracting since 2011 - but for different reasons than the mature countries.
In the emerging regions, CRT TVs are disappearing from the market, causing overall shipment to decrease. Because CRT sets are the cheapest option, this disappearance is having a major impact on overall sales. Low-income consumers in these regions often cannot afford more expensive LCD TV sets.
TV vendors are increasingly reluctant to sell unprofitable, cheap sets, such as CRTs, or LCDs that use the older CCFL backlighting technology. This is narrowing the choices for cheaper TVs among consumers in emerging economies. As a result, consumers in these regions are holding off on TV purchases until pricing for other types of TV sets decline to affordable levels, added IHS.
Hope springs eternal
Following the two-year decline, IHS forecasts a return to marginal growth for the worldwide TV market in 2014.
The global TV market in 2014 will grow to 229 million units, up 1% from 2013. CRT and plasma will face another big decline in demand, but the 5% growth of LCD TV will compensate for the shortfall and allow the overall TV market to grow, noted IHS. | 