The Dutch government is “highly unlikely” to grant ASML a license to export EUV scanners to China, an unnamed source told Bloomberg. The license wasn’t renewed a year ago following intense diplomatic pressure from the US, blocking shipment of a scanner to Chinese foundry SMIC. Since then, renewal has been under review, but no date has been set as to when the procedures should be complete.

ASML would sell EUV scanners to SMIC or other Chinese companies if allowed to do so but it isn’t particularly fazed if it’s not. “EUV is a driver of so many technologies that we can be sure there will be demand for the chips around the world. If for whatever reason we’re not allowed to sell EUV systems to China, another company will jump in to satisfy the demand. We’ll just ship to that company. It doesn’t matter to us where the chips are manufactured,” ASML CEO Peter Wennink explained last January.